Saturday, August 12, 2023

START HERE: Why geography as an interpretive lens?

Why do I put geography first in trying to interpret and predict the future of A Song of Ice and Fire?

The simple answer is that coordinating people and events in space (and time) is among the most fundamental parts of writing any narrative.  

GRRM created a "world" in which all the events of the ASOIAF books occur, which the fandom has come to call "Planetos."  GRRM pays particular attention to issues such as distance, with travel between two locations requiring realistic amounts of time, given the travel technologies available in the books (e.g., walking, horse, sailing, rowing, raven flight).  Dani's trek across the desert after the birth of her dragons... Ned Stark's marching south to join the Battle of the Bells... Sam, Gilly, and Maester Aemon's sea voyages... they all take considerable time... in weeks or even months.  The time taken to traverse two destinations becomes a huge part of the plot.

Within the world of "Planetos," climate plays a major role as well.  We know that the North of Westeros experiences very cold winters (and very cold Others), while more southerly locations seem to be consistently hot -- think of the city of Qarth or continent of Sothyros. 

In this blog, I will use geography to demonstrate my theories and predictions. I hope to convince you of the importance of this approach. 

Friday, August 11, 2023

Estuaries of the Seven Kingdoms, Part 2: Ashara Dayne in the Books

 

[From a 1950 photo of Elizabeth Taylor, a woman with violet eyes.  
Attribution:  MGM. Photographer not credited (according to page 97), Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

Read Part 1 first

Now I have shown you the background of my theory:  that place matters deeply.  Another character from one estuary region is likely to have traveled through another:  Ashara of House Dayne.  It's in paying attention to the geography of estuaries that we can stitch together what exactly happened to her.

But first, let's review the evidence we have from all the books published so far.  Most of it comes from people who think he to be Jon's mother, or Ned Stark's love, with one exception.  We also have some other stories of unnamed women with Ned that are relevant that I'll review here.

Ashara Dayne in the ASOIAF Books

A Game of Thrones

In AGOT, in Catelyn's first chapter, we read how she believed that Ashara had been Jon Snow's mother, and the consequences of asking Ned about it early in their marriage:

Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers.  They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat.  And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea.  The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes.  It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face.

That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her.  "Never ask me about Jon," he said, cold as ice.  "He is my blood, and that is all you need to know.  And now I will learn where you heard that  name, my lady."  She had pledged to obey, she told him, and from that day on, the whispering had stopped, and Ashara Dayne's name was never heard in Winterfell again.

When Ned invites Cersei to the Godswood in King's Landing to confront her with his discovery of her children's true parentage, she accuses him of hypocrisy (AGOT, Eddard),

"You've a bastard of your own, I've seen him.  Who was the mother, I wonder?  Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned?  A whore?  Or was the the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara?  She threw herself into the sea, I'm told.  Why was that?  For the brother you slew, or the child you stole?"

A Clash of Kings

While discussing how Stannis plans to employ Edric Storm in his campaign to prove that Joffrey is not Robert's heir, Catelyn Stark's thoughts turn to how her children appear:  mostly like a Tully, but for Arya, who shows much of Ned in her features...

And Jon Snow, but he was never mine.  She found herself thinking of Jon's mother, that shadowy secret love her husband would never speak of.  Does she grieve for Ned as I do?  Or did she hate him for leaving her bed for mine?  Does she pray for her son as I have prayed for mine?

They were uncomfortable thoughts, and futile.  If Jon had been born of Ashara Dayne of Starfall, as some whispered, the lady was long dead; if not, Catelyn had no clue who or where his mother might be.  And it made no matter.  Ned was gone now, and his loves and secrets had all died with him.

A Storm of Swords

While we can't be sure it refers to Ashara Dayne, on their flight north from Winterfell, Meera Reed tells Bran what seems to be the story of the Tourney at Harrenhal, in which she describes a crannogman's experience (A Storm of Swords, Bran).

"The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf, but only after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench."

Later in ASOS, Arya meets Lord Edric Dayne, squire to Lord Beric Dondarrion in the Brotherhood without Banners who is "promised" to his aunt.  They have a conversation about Arya's father's visit to Starfall near the end of Robert's Rebellion.  Following Ned Dayne's recollection of his being "milk brothers" with Jon Snow, having had Jon's (supposed) mother Wylla as a wet nurse, he announces his identity to Arya, expecting her to recognize the name...

"There was an Arthur Dayne," she remembered.  "The one they called the Sword of the Morning."

"My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother.  Lady Ashara was my aunt.  I never knew her, though.  She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born."

"'Why would she do that?" said Arya, startled.

Ned looked wary.  Maybe he was afraid that she was going to throw something at him.  "Your lord father never spoke of her?" he said.  "The Lady Ashara Dayne, of Starfall?'

"No.  Did he know her?"

"Before Robert was king.  She met your father and his brothers at Harrenhal, during the year of the false spring." 

"Oh."  Arya did not know what else to say.  "Why did she jump in the sea, though?"

"Her heart was broken."

Sansa would have sighed and shed a tear for true love, but Arya just thought it was stupid.  She couldn't say that to Ned, though, not about his own aunt.  "Did someone break it?"

He hesitated.  "Perhaps it's not my place..."

"Tell me."

He looked at her uncomfortably. "My aunt Allyria says Lady Ashara and your father fell in love at Harrenhal --"

"That's not so. He loved my lady mother."

"I'm sure he did, my lady, but --"

"She was the only  one he loved."

Following that conversation, the former Stark man Harwin rides up to Arya and converses with her, offering a few more thoughts and opinions about the history of her father and Ashara Dayne.

"I'm not afraid," she said.  "That boy Ned said..."

"Aye, he told me.  Lady Ashara Dayne.  It's an old tale, that one.  I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now... I doubt there's any truth to it.  But if there is, what of it?  When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor.  There's naught like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say?  Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that?  Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

"She killed herself, though," said Arya uncertainly.  "Ned said she jumped from a tower into the sea."

"So she did," Harwin admitted... "but that was for grief, I'd wager.  She'd lost a brother, the Sword of the Morning."

A Dance with Dragons

From Ser Barristan Selmy, in the chapter called "The Kingbreaker," we read his recollections of Ashara Dayne and the Tourney at Harrenhal.

"If I had been a better knight... if I had unhorsed the prince in that last tilt, as I unhorsed so many others, it would have been for me to choose the queen of love and beauty...

Rhaegar had chosen Lyanna Stark of Winterfell.  Barristan Selmy would have made a different choice.  Not the queen, who was present.  Nor Elia of Dorne, though she was good and gentle; had she been chosen, much war and woe might have been avoided.  His choice would have been a young maiden not long at court, one of Elia's companions... though compared to Ashara Dayne, the Dornish princess was a kitchen drab.

Even after all these years, Ser Barristan could still recall Ashara's smile, the sound of her laughter.  He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes.  Danaerys has the same eyes. Sometimes when the queen looked at him, he felt as if he were looking at Ashara's daughter.

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she has lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well.  She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her.  How could she?  He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy.  No good could have come from telling her his feelings.  No good came from silence either.  If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?

He would never know.  But of all his failures, none haunted Barristan Selmy so much as that.

That's what we know explicitly about Ashara.  To summarize:

  • Age:  Probably in her teens at Harrenhal Tourney.  Catelyn describes her as young.  According to Selmy, she had only recently arrived at court as a lady-in-waiting for Elia Martell.  Had she lived to appear in the ASOIAF books, she would her be in her 30s or early 40s.
  • Appearance:  At time of Harrenhal Tourney, dark hair, shoulder-length or longer.  Purple eyes described as "haunting" (Cat and Barristan), "laughing" (Meera), and like Danaerys' eyes (Barristan).
  • Childbearing:  According to Cersei and Barristan, she bore a child.  Child was either "stolen" by Ned Stark or a stillborn daughter, according to Barristan.  Catelyn has heard rumors that she was Jon Snow's mother.
  • Death:  according to Edric Dayne and Cersei, she threw herself into the sea.  Edric Dayne and Barristan both claim she threw herself from a tower, which Edric Dayne names the Palestone Sword of Starfall.  Catelyn believes her to be long dead.

Other relevant texts

Because Ashara Dayne is suspected by Catelyn to be Jon Snow's mother, it is relevant to also review those passages pertaining to Jon Snow's mother.  Note that I believe in the R+L=J theory, but the confusion around who Jon's mother is and the fact that Lady Ashara gets mentioned provides some clues about what really happened to Ashara.

 

Ned Stark's Cover Story to Robert Baratheon in AGOT

On the Kingsroad south from Winterfell following his acceptance of Robert's nomination to be Hand of the King, Ned and Robert discuss extramarital relationships.  While Responding to Robert chortling about the two of them running off to find some wenches, Ned replies...

"Would that we could," Ned said, "but we have duties now my liege... to the realm, to our children, I to my lady wife and you to your queen.  We are not the boys we were."

"You were never the boy you were," Robert grumbled.  "More's the pity.  And yet there was that one time... what was her name, that common girl of yours?  Becca?  No, she was one of mine, gods love her, black hair and these sweet big eyes, you could drown in them.  Yours was... Aleena?  You told me once.  Was it Merryl?  You know the one I mean, your bastard's mother?"

"Her name was Wylla," Ned replied with cool courtesy, "and I would sooner not speak of her."

"Wylla.  Yes."  The king grinned.  "She must have been a rare wench to make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour.  You never told me what she looked like..."

Ned's mouth tightened in anger.  "Nor will I.  Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me.  I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men."

"Gods have mercy, you scarcely knew Catelyn."

"I had taken her to wife.  She was carrying my child."

 

The Fisherman's Daughter

While in Sisterton, Davos Seaworth talks with Lord Borrell.  Their conversation includes the following.

 ...Lord Godric rubbed his chin.  "Still... in this world, only winter is certain.  Ned Stark told my father that, here in this very hall."

 "Ned Stark was here?"

 "At the dawn of Robert's Rebellion.  The Mad King had sent to the Eyrie for Stark's head, but Jon Arryn sent him back defiance.  Gulltown stayed local to the throne, though.  To get home and call his banners, Stark had to cross the mountains to the Fingers and find a fisherman to carry him across the Bite.  A storm caught them on the way.  The fisherman drowned, but his daughter got Stark to the Sisters before the boat went down.  They say he left her with a bag of silver and a bastard in her belly.  Jon Snow, she named him, after Arryn."

 

Wylla the Wet Nurse


When Arya is speaking with Edric Dayne, he also tells her about a woman named Wylla, with some information that Arya finds very surprising.

"My lady?"  Ned said at last.  "You have a baseborn brother... Jon Snow?" 

"He's with the Night's Watch on the Wall."  Maybe I should go to the Wall instead of Rivrerrun.  Jon wouldn't care who I killed or whether I brushed my hair.  "Jon looks like me, even though he's bastard-born."  He sued to muss my hair and call me 'little sister.' "  Arya missed Jon most of all.  Just saying his name made her sad.  "How do you know about Jon?"

"He is my milk brother."

"Brother?"  Arya did not understand.  "But you're from Dorne.  How could you and Jon be blood?"

"Milk brothers.  Not blood.  My lady mother had no milk when I was little, so Wylla had to nurse me."

Arya was lost.  "Who's Wylla?"

"Jon Snow's mother.  He never told you?  She's served us for years and years. Since before I was born."

"Jon never knew his mother.  Not even her name."  Arya gave Ned a wary look.  "You know her?  Is he making mock of me?  "If you lie I'll punch your face." 

"Wylla was my wetnurse," he repeated solemnly.   "I swear it on the honor of my house."

[...]

Jon has a mother.  Wylla, her name is Wylla.  She would need to remember so she could tell him, the next time she saw him."

Estuaries of the Seven Kingdoms, Part 1: the Question of Ashara Dayne

 

Want to solve one of the biggest mysteries of the book series, A Song of Ice and Fire?  Look at geography...

All About Estuaries


Also known as bays, sounds, or lagoons, estuaries are places where freshwater rivers empty into saltwater oceans. The mixing of saltwater and freshwater provides a habitat that can support plentiful plant and animal life. Industries that rely on estuaries include crabbing, oystering, and fishing. 

In Westeros, there are several bodies of water and places named for the abundant sea life these estuaries support:  the Bay of Crabs, the Bay of Seals, and Seal Rock, for example. Other great bays in Westeros centered on estuaries include Blackwater Bay, the Whispering Sound, the bay along Lannisport, and the bay containing the Shield Islands.  Great cities in Westeros are also frequently found near estuaries or their associated rivers:  King's Landing, White Harbor, Highgarden, Oldtown, and Starfall are all closely linked with estuaries or an associated river.  There are also a number of important ports, cities, and holdfasts found throughout Westeros along estuaries, including Maidenpool, Casterly Rock, Moat Cailin, and Heart's Home.  In Essos, important cities like Braavos and Astapor also sit on or near estuaries.  These cities show that the richest cities are nearest the estuaries.

The estuaries of Westeros are surrounded by different types of terrain.  King's Landing includes high hills that offer a strategic advantage in defending the city, but waterfrontage that Tyrion Lannister used to great effect in the Battle of the Blackwater.  Oldtown is a large city near the Whispering Sound, and is a very rich city in which the Citadel, the Hightower, and the Starry Sept (the first capital of the Faith of the Seven).  White Harbor, found on the the White Knife river and the Bite bay and is the only real city in the North and one of the richest city in Westeros.  The New Castle of the Manderly family is found on top of a hill overlooking the city, on which the Castle Stair road between the castle and Wolf's Den.   Starfall was the former capital of the Kings of the Torentine, located where the Torentine River empties into the Summer Sea and is surrounded by the western Red Mountains.    

[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ba/Marseille_Vieux_Port_Night.jpg]

[Johann Bernhard Fischer von Erlach, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

Throughout Westeros, the physical and ecological environments affect the cultures of the populations therein.  Northern populations are always aware of the winter cold, while in the lower Reach, even noble house members have never seen snow.  The House Redwyne in The Arbor island has a large navy and associated culture.  The desert in the Dorne has made wet locations such as the Water Gardens and the Greenblood well-loved places.

Cities near large estuaries take advantage of them for their incomes.  White Harbor relies on the marine trade and fishing grounds associated with the river and the bay.  King's Landing relies on supply chains from around around the world to provide the kings with the best foods, goods, and supplies from around Westeros and the broader world.


[Fajardoalacant, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons]


[Julian Herzog, CC BY 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons]

There are some places that have such particular physical environments that the skills people get from growing up in one of them become useful in places far from home.  For example, at the start Brienne's journey with Jaime and Cleos Frey on the Trident,

The Red Fork was wide and slow, a meandering river of loops and bends dotted with tiny wooded islets and frequently choked by sandbars and snags that lurked just below the water's surface.  Brienne seemed to have a keen eye for the dangers, though, and always seemed to find the channel.  When Jaime complimented her on her knowledge of the river, she looked at him suspiciously and said, "I do not know the river.  Tarth is an island.  I learned to manage oars and sail before I ever sat a horse."

Beyond boating being known to someone growing up on an island, there are other skills likely for many different types of terrains that can be useful elsehwere.  For example, in the Vale of Arryn, there is a "glacial river" through the Mountains of Moon that "flows into a narrow bay of the narrow sea"  In Dorne, the Torentine River flows through the Red Mountains into the Summer Sea.  While these estuaries are in different regions, and the cultures of residents of them are likely to be different, there are likely to be some behaviors that are similar.  For example, taking advantage of the fishing grounds in the estuaries would feed the people and improve the economy of each location.  

Those are just two key example of how the skills one gains growing up in a particular physical environment may be useful in others far from where one grew up.  As with Brienne's ability to navigate the Trident safely despite not having to  

Being able to travel through the mountains would be more likely for the people living in mountains.  Teaching children to swim and boat would be a way for parents to prevent children from drowning for locations near water, especially islands.  Growing up in Tarth made Brienne able to navigate the Trident.  Similarly, While the culture of the Vale and the Torentine would likely be quite different, someone from the Vale would probably not find the Torentine area totally unfamiliar.

The two photos below show two distinct mountain river valleys in the real world:  one in an otherwise dry and arid environment, the other in a lush, snow-capped range of mountains.  It's easy to imagine the Red Mountains in the photo above and the Mountains of the Moon in the scene below.

[Jebulon, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons]



[Ximonic (Simo Räsänen), CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons]


Aside from Brienne, are there any other examples of characters from one such region who may have traveled to another and made use of skills learned at home?  Certainly.  We know House Manderly moved from the Mander River to the White Knife/Bite intersection -- the estuary.  A warm-weather house moved to a cold-weather region, and was able to set up well there.  These were not mountainous regions, but it illustrates the point of how the local terrain and water resources may be more important to how a family lives than the greater biological and ecological region.

Stay tuned for the next installment of Estuaries of the Seven Kingdoms for the answer to one of the biggest unanswered questions in A Song of Ice and Fire:  Ashara Dayne.


Who was where? The Unknowns of Robert's Rebellion

  Answering many of the unknowns of Robert's Rebellion will likely let us know the answers of many of the questions about everything in ASOIAF.  

Just a few considerations of potentially very important people and things during and after Robert's Rebellion.

  • The Redwyne Fleet -- It blockaded Storm's End throughout the war, but when Mace Tyrell lowered his banners to Ned Stark, where did the fleet go?  Robert Baratheon had to ask Stannis to build a whole new fleet before they were able to attack Dragonstone.  Did the Redwyne Fleet stay away? 
  • House Greyjoy -- We know that Balon rebelled between Robert's Rebellion and the War of Five Kings, but what were he and his brothers doing during while Ned Stark called his banners and marched south?  Wasn't the same opportunity available compared to when Robb Stark marched south?
  • Ashara Dayne -- We know she was at the Tourney at Harrenhal before the war and at Starfall at its end.  Where was she during the war?
  • Rhaegar Targaryen -- We know that his "kidnapping" Lyanna Stark is what kicked off the events leading to Robert's Rebellion.  His father only called him back to King's Landing after the Battle of the Bells.  Was Rhaegar totally unaware of the rebellion taking place, including his close friend Jon Connington being named Hand of the King?  
  • House Martell and Prince Doran -- we know that Dornish forces marched north after the Battle of the Bells, but what was Dorne doing up to that point?  Why did they wait so long to support Aerys?
  • Brynden Rivers -- The Three Eyed Crow was actively courting Bran after his fall in A Game of Thrones.  He was very involved in everything before going north and taking the black.  What was he doing during Robert's Rebellion?
  • Oberyn Martell -- we hear that at the end of Robert's Rebellion, he sought to raise Dorne for Viserys.  But where was he DURING the major part of the war?
  • (f)Aegon Targaryen -- The story of the Pisswater Prince is about what happened at the end of Robert's Rebellion.  We hear from Jon Connington that he was in Essos for a few years before Varys and Illyrio contacted him about the surviving son of JonCon's "Silver Prince."  Where was baby (f)Aegon between the war and JonCon taking him as a "son?" 
  • The "four loyal men" who helped Willem Darry smuggle Viserys and Daenerys off Dragonstone.  We only hear about Darry, but there were clearly others.  Who were they?  What did they know?  What were their fates after arriving in Braavos?

How did Ned Stark know about Lyanna at the Tower of Joy?

After the Sack of King's Landing, Eddard Stark led the forces of the alliance that brought Robert to power to Storm's End to lift the siege that was being maintained by the Tyrell forces.  When Ned's host arrived, Mace Tyrell dipped his banners immediately.  Shortly afterward, Ned led a group of six of his trusted northern bannermen (Howland Reed, Willam Dustin, Ethan Glover, Martin Cassel, Theo Wull, and Mark Ryswell) to an obscure tower nestled in the red mountains of Dorne -- the Tower of Joy.


The war began when Ned's brother Brandon heard that his sister Lyanna had been kidnapped by Rhaegar Targaryen.  Riding immediateloy to King's Landing, when Brandon and his companions entered the Red Keep and shouted to Rhaegar to come out and die, King Aerys II arrested him for plotting to murder the crown prince.  Rickard Stark and the other fathers of those arrested were called to King's Landing to answer for their sons.  When there, Brandon, Lord Rickard, and most of the other Northmen were executed and tortured.  Next, Aerys demanded that Lord Jon Arryn send him the heads of Robert Baratheon, Lyanna's betrothed, and Eddard Stark, both of whom were now lords.  Rather than kill his two wards, Jon Arryn raised his banners in revolt -- an act considered to be the true start of the war known as Robert's Rebellion.

A serious question remains -- if Ned and Robert knew early on that Lyanna was in the Tower of Joy, why didn't they try to rescue her?  Clearly Brandon had believed that Rhaegar had taken Lyanna to King's Landing, a mistake that cost him his life.  It could be that Lyanna wasn't at the tower at the start of the war, but only arrived there near the end of the war.  If so, how did Ned learn that information?

I'm making a few assumptions here.  First, if the Starks knew were Lyanna was near the start of the war, then why did he go north from the Eyrie via the Fingers, Sisterton, and White Harbor, rather than south, toward Dorne?  Second, had Robert known her location at the start of the war, the pathway his army took doesn't make a lot of sense -- while tactical considerations could have forced him to march north to Stony Sept, when he fought his battles at Summerhall and Ashford early in the war, he was as close to the Tower of Joy as he ever would be during the war.  Wouldn't it make sense to try to reach the Tower of Joy if the Starks and Baratheons knew Lyanna was there?

So we're forced to conclude that Ned didn't know where Lyanna was until later in the war.

At the Tower of Joy, the seven Northmen clashed with three Kingsguard and killed them.  His memories of that battle are intermingled with cries of his sister Lyanna crying out his name:  "As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming.  'Eddard!" she called."

From these memories, it would seem that the band of Northmen that road into the red mountains of Dorne had known Lyanna's location when they rode south from Storm's End.  But how did they learn? 

One clue might come from another of Ned's memories.  "Martyn Cassel had perished with the rest.  Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns upon the ridge.  It was said that Rhaegar had names that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory.  They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed."

As to the number of cairns, the math makes sense. We know that Ned had returned Lyanna's body to Winterfell, as Robert and he visited it at the beginning of AGOT.  Other than that:

    (7 Northmen - 2 survivors) + (3 Kingsguard) + (1 Lyanna) = 8 bodies to bury + 1 Lyanna.

What doesn't make sense is that two people alone could pull down a tower in which Rhaegar had hidden Lyanna for safety, and which the Kingsguard were assigned to guard.  How do two people with horses destroy a stone structure by themselves?

What was the Tower of Joy?  We can get some insight by considering what its military and geopolitical function might have been.  Examining the map of the South in GRRM's novels, the "Tower of Joy" stood near the north end of the Prince's Path, one of three "castles" along that road.  The other two are Kingsgrave and Skyreach.  The first of these is the house of House Manwoody.  Skyreach the ancient home of House Fowler, called the Wardens of the Prince's Pass.  It would appear that the Tower of Joy was built as a guard tower to defend the pass against military invaders from the north.  Rhaegar may have named the tower, but it's unlikely that he built it.  It probably dates to a time before Dorne submitted to Targaryen rule (~187 AC), or even to the time before the Rhoynar arrived in Dorne, when the Fowlers were kings in their own right.

If the tower had stood for at least a century, likely under the jurisdiction of the Fowlers, and was able to securely house a pregnant woman for several months, it is exceedingly unlikely that two rebel lords would be able to pull the tower down for both physical and military reasons.

So how had Ned "pulled the tower down?"

There's an often-overlooked memory of Eddard's that may hold a clue. Eddard's first chapter in A Game of Thrones, we read, "They had found him still holding her [Lyanna's] body, silent with grief.  The little crannogman, Howland Reed, had taken her hand from his." 

While Ned and Howland Reed were the only survivors of the battle, there was at least one more person present to find Ned holding his sister's body.  Who could that person be?  Well, the first thing to consider is what it would take to knock down a fortified tower.  I propose that it would take at least a dozen men with horses and the right tools.  It would take someone with access to manpower and money who could operate openly along the Prince's Pass and destroy a tower that may have stood there for centuries.

In that House Fowler is charged with guarding the Prince's Pass, a strong possibility is that the "third person" who came upon Ned holding Lyanna's body was a Martell, to whom the Fowlers were bannermen.

Why would a Martell help Ned Stark, after he had helped lead the army that opposed the Royalist forces in which Dorne had taken part?  To answer that question, we need to look at the events that led up to the battle at the Tower of Joy.

Following his escape from the Vale of Arryn, Ned Stark went north and called his banners.  He marched his armies down to the Riverlands over a period of about four or five months.  In Riverrun, the Stark, Tully, and Arryn forces assembled following the agreement that Ned and Jon would marry Catelyn and Lysa.  Ned's first battle came in the Battle of the Bells at Stony Sept, where he defeated Royalist forces under Jon Connington.  After that, the Rebels marched back to Riverrun, where Ned remained for a fortnight following his marriage to Catelyn.

It was the next battle of the war, The Battle of the Trident, when Ned would first cross swords with the forces of Dorne, who had marched up the Kingsroad and joined Royalist forces at King's Landing.  In that battle, we know that the leader of the Dornish forces, Prince Lewyn Martell of the Kingsguard died at the hands of Ser Lyn Corbray wielding the Valyrian Steel blade, Lady Forlorn.  After killing Rhaegar, Robert was injured, leaving Ned to lead the vanguard of Robert's army to King's Landing, trying to reach it before the Lannister army arrived.

Knowing what we do of Ned Stark, doesn't it seem possible that he tried to learn from Rhaegar where Lyanna was?  We know that Robert's final hammer blow "stove" in the chest of Rhaegar, but did Rhaegar die immediately?  One possibility is that Rhaegar lived long enough to tell Ned where Lyanna was.  If so, wouldn't Ned have made that priority number one?  Wouldn't Robert demand his forces to make their way to Dorne to rescue her?  Wouldn't someone have sent a raven to friendly families in the South.. such as the Daynes?  But the odds are very low that Eddard would have heard it from Rhaegar.

Following the death of Rhaegar, the Royal forces broke and fled back to King's Landing.  Who might have been there?  While Lewyn Martell commanded the Dornish forces leaving King's Landing, he had not been at the head of the column that marched north from Dorne.  Who might be able to command Dornish troops gathered from the variety of Dornish nobles?  Not the ruler, Prince Doran... but his trusted brother, Oberyn.

Given the fate of Elia and her children, it seems unlikely that any of the Dornish forces were present in King's Landing and almost impossible that any Martells had entered the city, especially if Oberyn was among the survivors after the Trident.  So, I conclude from that logic that Oberyn Martell led the Dornish forces south from the Ruby Ford, and were not able to enter King's Landing.

We don't know a great deal about the fate of the retreating Dornish army, but we can conclude that the few of them reentered King's Landing.  Had the Dornish forces reached King's Landing before the Lannisters, Dornish leaders would likely have been present for the eventual sack of the city.  Any such leader, particularly Oberyn, would have sooner died than allowed harm to come to Elia and her children.  So it seems impossible for the Dornish army to have re-entered King's Landing.  So they likely moved south, back toward Dorne.

There are two points at which Ned Stark and Oberyn Martell might have met during the war.  First:  on the battlefield during or after the Battle of the Trident, it's possible that Oberyn saw Ned as a noble man who deserved to know where his sister was and got him a message -- maybe they even crossed swords (just to speculate).

Another time when Oberyn could have met with Ned was after the Sack of King's Landing, when Ned's force moving south (i.e., to lift the siege of Storm's End) would possibly run into the remainder of the Dornish troops heading back south.  Given the possibility of conflict between the troops, it would be smart of Ned to offer the Dornish army a guarantee of safe conduct, and offer a meeting.  From the House Martell motto, there is no way that Dornish forces would ever have surrendered.  It could also have been a gesture of respect to Ned Stark for Oberyn to personally meet with him and tell him where his sister really was.

One likely scenario for this happening would be that in which Dornish forces joined the remaining Royalist forces besieging Storm's End.  Mace Tyrell apparently already knew of the fall of King's Landing.  It's possible Oberyn was there to tell him, and then had the opportunity to talk with Ned.

Oberyn meeting with Ned would also clear up a remaining question:  how did the Martells learn the truth of how Elia and her children died?  The odds that King Robert told the Martells about the Lannister forces killing Elia and her children are extremely low, while the general practice of politicians in King's Landing is to provide a pretextual story to hide the truth of what happens.  However, Ned having left King's Landing immediately after his conflict with Robert over the murders meant that it was likely he would share the fate of Elia and her children with her family.

Assuming that Oberyn told Ned about the Tower of Joy and both being aware of how Robert treats Targaryen children, Oberyn and Ned would have joint motivation to destroy the tower and hide evidence of Lyanna's relationship with Rhaegar.  As Oberyn cared deeply for his own children at a later date and Ned was a man of deep honor, it is totally within the character of both to work together to protect baby Jon.  Oberyn's Martell family connections and their influence over their bannermen would provide the resources needed to make a structure hundreds of years old disappear.

START HERE: Why geography as an interpretive lens?

Why do I put geography first in trying to interpret and predict the future of A Song of Ice and Fire? The simple answer is that coordinating...